Kentucky Derby 2025: Top Picks, Predictions, Odds & Insights
The post positions for the 151st Kentucky Derby were released over the weekend and include horses from six Hall of Fame trainers, such as Steve Asmussen, Bill Mott and Bob Baffert (the joint successful trainer at the Kentucky Derby).
Currently, Journalism, trained by Michael McCarthy, is the 3-1 favorite after recent impressive wins in the San Felipe Stakes and Santa Anita Derby. But with so many runners from high-quality trainers, the field is wide open. Before you make your pick, you’ll want to check out my top predictions and my top choice of online sportsbook.
2025 Kentucky Derby predictions – my top picks for the Run for the Roses
Sandman, trained by Mark Casse, a Hall of Fame trainer, has been heralded as a 6-1 favorite for the Derby, but for my money, you should skip. Despite a prestigious pedigree and a recent win in the Arkansas Derby, Sandman failed to find a win in his first four starts at stakes races. His rider, Jose Ortiz, also has a 0-9 record at the Kentucky Derby. Instead, these are my top five picks for the 2025 Run for the Roses and their live odds at the time of writing.
1. Journalism (3-1)
Trained by Michael McCarthy, Journalism is entering the Derby with a strong recent record. He scored an impressive victory in the San Felipe S.2 Santa Anita and has a record of 3-0-1 from four starts.
The short course should suit Journalism’s versatile running style, as he’s able to settle and press early. Plus, Journalism is trained by Michael McCarthy, a legendary trainer with more than 386 career wins.
- Trainer: Michael McCarthy
- Jockey: Umberto Rispoli
2. Rodriguez (12-1)
Another strong contender for the Derby winner, Rodriguez gained 100 points coming into the Kentucky Derby. He is the son of Authentic, himself a Kentucky Derby winner, and joins the list of starters after scoring an authoritative 3 1/2 lengths victory in the nine-furlong Wood Memorial at Aqueduct.
In addition, Rodriguez’s trainer, Bob Baffert, has trained six Derby winners so far, including the Triple Crown-winning Justify in 2018.
- Trainer: Bob Baffert
- Jockey: Mike Smith
3. Luxor Cafe (15-1)
Based in Japan, Luxor Cafe is a full brother of Cafe Pharaoh and son of American Pharaoh. He’s also the half-brother, by American Pharaoh, of another runner, Publisher. After a slightly erratic start to his first race, Luxor Cafe seems to have found a comfortable stride, including a titanic tussle against Admire Daytona that ended in a slim victory by a nose.
There’s a chance of rain at Churchill Downs, and a good track condition could be an advantage to Luxor Cafe. However, it’s worth remembering that Luxor has limited experience racing against American horses with known form, so it’s hard to gauge exactly how he’ll stack up against the rest of the field.
- Trainer: Noriyuki Hori
- Jockey: Joao Moreira
4. Sovereignty (5-1)
Trained by Bill Mott, and boasting a pedigree which should set him up well for this race, Sovereignty could be a great pick for winner. Sovereignty’s style combines speed and stamina, leading to a stellar win in the recent Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) and putting him in good stead for the Derby’s 1 1/4-mile course.
- Trainer: William I. Mott
- Jockey: Manuel Franco
5. Burnham Square (12-1)
A serious contender for Derby winner, Burnham Square heads into the Run for the Roses with 130 qualifying points. His maiden win came in December 2024 at Gulfstream Park and, since then, this three-year-old gelding has scored wins in the G3 Holy Bull Stakes and G1 Blue Grass Stakes.
Burnham Square’s stable, Witham Thoroughbreds, has produced many impressive results but hasn’t yet managed to scoop the Derby victory. Could this be their year?
- Trainer: Ian R. Wilkes
- Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr
Make your pick on the 2025 Kentucky Derby at bet365
I’ve scoured the odds and markets for the Kentucky Derby to bring you the best bookies for your action. For first timers and regulars, bet365 is one of the best choices and offers a welcome bonus of £30 in free bets when you deposit and bet £10. There’s no bet365 bonus code required here either, just use the link on this page to go straight to the site and make your account.
Conclusion – get ready for the ‘greatest two minutes in sport’
Nicknamed the ‘greatest two minutes in sport’, we can expect 2025’s Kentucky Derby to be full of drama. The race will start at 6:57 PM E.T. and, for the second year, features guaranteed prizes of $5 million. Mystik Dan ran to victory in 2024 but who will be the 2025 winner? Head to Bet365 to make your pick and don’t forget to take advantage of their welcome offer and ongoing horse racing bonuses including bet boosts and best odds guaranteed. Best Odds Guaranteed (BOG) is now restricted to UK & Irish Horse Racing and Greyhounds only. This means that for all other racing markets (including US, Australian, and other international racing), BOG will no longer be applied