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Kelly Criterion Betting Calculator: Easily Stake Your Bets Using Kelly

James Leeland
Editor
Fact checked by: Jim Knight
Last Updated on 15.05.2024

The Kelly Criterion betting calculator is designed to optimise betting stakes. By using the Kelly Formula, it helps bettors make informed decisions by providing accurate estimates for the best stakes based on the odds and winning probability of a bet.

On this page, users will be guided through a step-by-step process of using our Kelly Criterion calculator. From understanding its core concept to entering your betting odds and probabilities with ease, readers will learn everything they need to use the calculator to get the best possible outcomes with their Kelly betting strategies.

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Use Our Free Kelly Calculator to Enhance Your Betting Strategy

Kelly calculator

Odds Format
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Kelly Betting Calculator: How It Works

The Kelly Criterion Calculator is one of several betting calculators that are currently available on our site, and it has been designed to optimise stakes for bettors using the Kelly Criterion formula. This mathematical formula calculates an ideal percentage of your bankroll to stake when there is a difference between the true odds and those displayed by bookmakers.

How Can It Help?

The Kelly Criterion sports betting calculator serves two key purposes. First, it determines an optimal stake based on your odds and your assessed probability of winning that particular bet. Secondly, it saves bettors considerable time and effort by doing the hard work for them. Calculating the ideal bet size manually involves complex mathematics, which is both time-consuming and prone to some sort of mistake, particularly under pressure or for those who aren’t used to working with numbers. By automating this calculation instead, this calculator helps you make informed decisions faster based on accurate numbers.

What is the Kelly Criterion in Sports Betting?

The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula widely employed in sports betting and investment to determine the optimal size of a series of bets. This formula helps bettors understand how much of their bankroll they should wager, given their own perception of the odds of their bet winning against a bookmaker’s odds. Ultimately, the principle behind it all aims to maximise the potential profit of a bet through the use of mathematically informed betting decisions.

Using Football as an Example

This section gives you a brief example to consider that should help you get your head around it. We’re using football–specifically, a match between Chelsea and Crystal Palace.

Chelsea are pegged at 1.82 to win. That means the implied probability of this team winning the game is about 55%. However, you notice in the build-up to the fixture that Palace’s key player, Eberechi Eze, is unavailable for selection. So, you reckon that the true probability of Chelsea winning is now more like 65%. Using the calculator, you will see that you need to bet 22.32% of your bankroll to maximise profit.

Of course, betting 22% of your bankroll may not be a wise long-term approach for sustainable betting. However, that’s why you can toggle with different Kelly multipliers to reduce the risks even further. For instance, by dropping the standard multiplier down from 1 to 1/4 or 0.25, your recommended percentage goes down to around 5%, which is a much safer amount to stake with if you’re not entirely confident.

Benefits of Adopting the Kelly Criterion Approach

Kelly Criterion betting approaches offer several key advantages over their counterparts, including being able to balance two opposing goals: increasing returns while at the same time mitigating risk. With its disciplined way of calculating bet sizes based on the perceived value and likelihood of winning, this approach can provide those seeking to make informed decisions a mathematical edge. It not only enhances long-term profitability but also promotes practical bankroll management by preventing you from overbetting.

Can You Use the Kelly Formula on All Sports?

While the Kelly Criterion provides a solid base for betting strategies, its use varies across sports due to their respective odds, markets, and betting dynamics. Here are some sports that work well with Kelly betting:

Football (Soccer)

Ideal for markets with two or three outcomes, like match result betting, where the Kelly Criterion can precisely calculate stake based on direct odds comparison. There’s a whole array of betting markets as well as relatively predictable odds for match results. That means you can apply for the formula to finesse your stakes. In terms of markets, safe choices are usually match results as well as the over/under market for goals.

Basketball

Suitable for point spread and over/under bets, where statistical analytics can provide a solid basis for determining bet size in this pacy game of unpredictable outcomes. Using this system helps you manage the volatility of the game, with so many frequent changes in score. It is useful to stick to the playoff series when applying this strategy. Usually, you’ll find the outcomes and key performers much more predictable than earlier in the season.

American Football

Great for over/under and spread betting, leveraging detailed statistical analysis to inform the Kelly calculation. Because this is a sport that is very dense in terms of stats and data, that means you are able to make more nuanced decisions about how to wager your stake effectively. In terms of finding value, look for stable matchups and dive into performance metrics and statistics. Popular markets to consider include classic money lines and point spreads because there’s usually a high score.

Use Our Free Kelly Betting Calculator

Our free Kelly betting calculator is simple to use. First, choose your figure for the Kelly multiplier; the standard is one, but you can reduce it to a 1/2 (0.5) or 1/4 (.25) multiplier, for example. Then input your odds in decimal format and key in your estimated probability for the bet winning. Hit calculate, and you’re done! You’ll see the recommended fraction of your bankroll to wager, and you can alter the multiplier to suit your budget as needed. It is that simple, so give it a try for yourself to get a feel for how it works.

Kelly calculator

Odds Format
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3 Useful Benefits When Using This Calculator

Maximising your betting outcomes becomes more streamlined with our Kelly Calculator. We list the top three advantages of using this tool below:

1. Optimise Your Bankroll Management

The Kelly betting calculator can help optimise bankroll management because it helps you place bets that are proportionate to your bankroll, mitigating risk of overspending while maximising the potential for sustainable growth over time. Whether you are a casual or experienced bettor, utilising the calculator offers you a disciplined budget framework to follow.

2. Reduce Emotional Decision-Making

One key advantage of using the calculator is reducing emotional decision-making. Bettors may become overly emotional after recent wins or losses, leading them to place large bets without doing proper data analysis. Using mathematical equations like the Kelly Criterion to determine the best bet size means your bet is based on logic, not feelings. By doing so, you reduce the odds of making hasty decisions that could hurt your bankroll.

3. Enhances Long-Term Strategy Development

A major advantage of using the calculator lies in its contribution to developing a long-term strategic approach to betting. Instead of being preoccupied with short-term gains or losses, Kelly Criterion encourages users to think ahead about how their bet placement decisions might have long-term consequences, leading to more thoughtful decisions. In doing so it builds patience and discipline, essential qualities necessary for long-term success in competitive environments like sports betting.

Leading Bookmakers for Applying the Kelly Method

Choosing the best betting sites is critical to effectively applying the Kelly Criterion to your betting strategy. Below, we present leading bookmakers that offer superior tools and odds that can maximise your bets.

1.
Bet365
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At bet365 we don’t do ordinary, that’s why if you sign up now you’ll get the choice of two great New Customer Offers, the First Bet Safety Net up to $1000 or Bet $5 and Get $150 in Bonus Bets. Deposit required. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. T&Cs, time limits and exclusions apply. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-Gambler 21+
2.
BetMGM
  • Bonus: Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win
  • VIP Club, Loyalty Program
  • Cash Out, Live Streams
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T&Cs apply, 21+
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3.
DraftKings
  • Bonus: 20% up to $1000
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PayPal
VIP Preferred
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T&Cs apply, 21+
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3 Quick Tips for Using a Kelly Criterion Calculator

Implementing Kelly Criterion calculators effectively can greatly enhance your betting strategy. Here are three quick tips to ensure maximum effectiveness for this powerful tool.

Start Small and Experiment

As you begin using the Kelly Criterion in your betting strategy, it is recommended to start with smaller stakes to become familiar with its mechanics without putting too much of your funds at risk. Experimentation should play an integral part during this stage; try applying various bet types under various betting conditions to see how they adapt based on perceived edge and volatility. Trial-and-error will give you an understanding of how best to utilise its power for optimal bet sizing.

Do Thorough Research on Bookmaker Odds

Doing thorough research on bookmaker odds can significantly enhance your use of the Kelly Criterion in your betting strategy. Bookmakers may offer differing odds for the same event, so identifying those that offer the highest potential returns is key to increasing the expected value of bets over time. Consider not only the immediate payoff but also the longer-term implications on your bankroll. Carefully investigating differences in odds combined with disciplined use of the Kelly Criterion will potentially boost profitability over time.

Keep a Detailed Betting Record

An accurate record of your bets – both wins and losses– is essential to developing a sustainable betting strategy. By reviewing past bets in detail, you can objectively examine your betting patterns and evaluate them with your use of the Kelly Criterion. You’ll be able to identify trends and adapt your strategies accordingly, or spot areas where predictions match outcomes more closely. These insights not only sharpen your betting skills, but also foster disciplined habits, which are essential for long-term success and profitability.

Other Calculators to Try Out

In addition to the Kelly Criterion, our site offers a range of other calculators, such as an ROI calculator, that are designed to aid in your betting strategy. Each calculator is created to make any of your betting strategies both easier and faster so that you can focus more on your bets and less on tricky calculations.

Concluding Thoughts on Kelly Calculators

Overall, the Kelly Criterion betting calculator should be considered an indispensable tool for any bettor interested in a more scientific-like approach to their betting choices and their bankroll management. Utilising this calculator will help you identify the ideal betting amounts that balance profits against risks effectively and make informed decisions that can lead to more consistent long-term success. We recommend bettors to integrate it as part of their betting strategy to maximise efficiency and promote a practical and more disciplined approach to their betting experience!

Use Our Kelly Criterion Betting Calculator with These Betting Bonuses

To make the most of your betting strategy, combining this calculator with the right betting bonuses can significantly boost your overall experience. Below, we highlight some of the best betting bonuses currently available.

1.
Bet365
First Bet Safety Net up to $1000 OR Bet $5 and Get $150
Play Now
At bet365 we don’t do ordinary, that’s why if you sign up now you’ll get the choice of two great New Customer Offers, the First Bet Safety Net up to $1000 or Bet $5 and Get $150 in Bonus Bets. Deposit required. Bonus Bets wager excluded from returns. T&Cs, time limits and exclusions apply. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-Gambler 21+
2.
BetMGM
Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win
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T&Cs apply, 21+
PayNearMe
Skrill
PayPal
Bank Transfer
+9
3.
DraftKings
20% up to $1000
Play Now
T&Cs apply, 21+
PayPal
VIP Preferred
Play+
Discover
+6
4.
BetRivers.com
Second chance bet: Get up to $500 in Bonus Bets
Play Now
T&Cs apply, 21+
PayNearMe
Bank Transfer
VIP Preferred
PayPal
+7
5.
FanDuel
Bet $5 Get $150 in Bonus Bets if your bet wins
Play Now
T&Cs apply, 21+
Prepaid Card
PayNearMe
PayPal
Bank Transfer
+8

Kelly Criterion Sports Betting Calculator FAQs

🤔 What is the Kelly Criterion in relation to sports betting?

The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula that can help you determine how much of a stake should be placed on a bet for the best outcome.

✖ What is a Kelly Criterion calculator in sports betting?

Kelly Criterion calculators are simple tools designed to factor in the Kelly Criterion formula into your betting strategy for a practical approach. Simply by choosing your Kelly multiplier, and entering your odds and your expected probability of winning a particular bet, the calculator will tell you the most suitable stake to place on that bet.

🏈 What sports are best for applying the Kelly Criterion?

The Kelly Criterion can be applied across various sports but is most effective when applied to those that feature win/lose outcomes or precise probabilities that can be more accurately estimated. Football, basketball, and tennis provide ample statistical data that can lead to more accurately predicted outcomes.

🏧 How can a Kelly Criterion calculator aid your betting strategy?

Since the Kelly Criterion calculator automatically calculates your stake amount, it not only saves you time in making a betting decision, but it also will help stop you from over or under betting.

🎁 Do bonuses work well alongside Kelly Criterion betting?

Bonuses offered by sportsbooks can work in tandem with Kelly Criterion strategies by providing you with more free betting credits so that you don’t have to use your personal funds as much. Such bonuses may take the form of free bets, deposit matches, or cashback offers.